The Louisville write up

Why am I writing this?

every regionals is usually the same kinda sorta. I think I've been to like 13 of them now. I hit some matchups I like and some I don't. But what if you hit basically all the matchups you like and still don't get it?

If you think about it, in actuality, I won less than half of my matches when you don't count the no-show. Also, I got out to a basic box, which is a good matchup of all things (though nothing against the guy, he played extremely well and got a really good placement overall).

Starting the day with a 59 card mirror and the second match to a local is funny. But both those ties make the day so so much harder. The mewbox tie though was somewhat out of my control (but nevertheless makes me sad). I'm high on the 4-0-4 dream, I really reallly realllllllly didn't want to scoop when it was close to losing, especially with birds where everything is a gamble on the next turn. However if I treat those ties like losses, which functionally in 4-1-3 they kinda are, then I was only shooting myself in the foot. Is it really right to play honch, which is all about gambling, and then not even attempt the "immediate scoop gamble on game 2" strat?

People joke about Henry Chao's tweet about "signing the contract" when playing Zororark instead of Pult.

Zoroark and Honch are similar in a way. They both gamble of of lots of draw power. However I think the "contract" you sign by playing honch is a much much stronger contract. Why? Honchcrow doesn't revolve around board state at all. It's really hard to say "what is a good board state." There is no fez. There's usually only one energy on the board total (or zero). Anything and everything depends on exactly what's in your hand that exact turn.

On the flipside, I did some calculations. Fez has quite OK to high probabilities going into matchups that don't start with the name "festival lead" (or slowking starting second). With the expected matchups for a tournament, it's still, if all luck hits at the expected rate, contend decently well with the rest of the meta.

Everyone loves using the word "variance" nowadays. No idea when that started. But when you play this deck, you trade variance of matchups for variance of your setup. It's not "oh I bricked" though. Honch doesn't brick (or not easily) thanks to having some of the MOST support in this format (proton is broken hello???????). Instead, it moreover comes down to "I needed 6 supporters but only drew 5 after 2 turns" or "I drew 9 new cards this turn and still didn't see one energy!!!!??!?"

So, even on a perfect day where the matchups are just everything you want and you feel like you play perfect, you still will not get the results you wanted. That's part of the contract. There's not much control at all (except maybe scooping earlier oops)

However, why is this contract important? Why even sign it? Why not play a deck that has more control over what you do?

I think about this all the time. Especially knowing hundreds are on the line in travel costs lol. Decks like this have not as much "skill demonstration" (i forgot the right word) that can show that you're a great player. You're just lucky.

But sometimes we do need to back up a little. This isn't a chess tournament. Luck is an element added to this game for a reason. Good players aim to minimize the need for it, or maximize its odds. But instead of playing around it, what if we play into it. If we discover a situation where "the average/expected value" of the outcomes you produce are unavoidable or quite beneficial, why not take that chance? Especially if you might not have exactly the time or training to grind every game all day on every match. Such helps even the playing field, especially when it feels like the top is way too far away.

Case study

I want to redirect your attention to a deck that was a meta contender in the beginning of the TCG pocket format.

This deck relied on coin flips for all its attacks. but because the average expected benefit of those coin flips was so beneficial, the gamble was worth it. A similar thing happened with Articuno ex decks, relying on coin flips with Misty.

A word of caution

There's one thing that really strings this altogether that we do have the power to control. It's not luck. It's our reaction around luck. It's emotion.

I've started to realize a lot of my plays have started to become more emotion driven. If I get distracted, I will absolutely not think straight about my next game. Same thing if a big bet either pays too well or doesn't pay off. This affects how early I scoop. This affects my gamble on finding another energy or when to use Team Rocket's Temu factory. I think I've had an entire challenge run wiped because my brain really wanted to say "oh this play would be so cool if I could pull it off" 20 times in a row - and then I forgot what I actually needed to do.

My biggest way to start countering this is to use my notepad. I've learned, it's not only a tool for keeping track of game state. But also it's a tool for keeping your brain in focus. By keeping good habits and repeating the same thought process (e.g. counting cards, supporters, turn counts, energy counts) on your notepad, you have less time to think about "haha play funny". You're opponent isn't just your opponent, but also yourself. I've lost this run, but i'll be back to strike in Vegas.